Karar Ağaçları ve Genetik Algoritmalar ile İkinci El Otomobil Satış Fiyat Tahmini

Özçalıcı, Mehmet

doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.323836

Predicting Second-Hand Car Sales Price Using Decision Trees and Genetic Algorithms

bib

Mehmet Özçalıcı, Ph.D.

Abstract

It is important to predict the sales price of second-hand car for both persons and institutions who are operating in second-hand market. The sales price of cars are affected by many factors which makes predicting difficult. Especially there is no readily available method to determine which factors are affecting the sales price most. The purpose of this study is to predict the sales price of second-hand cars with decision trees. Genetic Algortihm is used to select the most relevant features. For this purpose, 252645 advertisements are scanned fort his study. For each advertisement there are 139 features available. Different models are examined using genetic algorithms with selecting 5, 10, 15 and 20 features. The best predicting performance in the out-of-sample experiment is %65,67. Proposed model can be used as a decision support system for those operating in second-hand car market

Keywords: Data Mining, Decision Trees, Genetic Algorithm, Predicting, Second-Hand Cars

Jel Classification: C44

Karar Ağaçları ve Genetik Algoritmalar ile İkinci El Otomobil Satış Fiyat Tahmini

Öz

İkinci el araçların satış fiyatlarının önceden tahmin edilmesi, ikinci el piyasada alım satımla ilgilenen kişi ve kurumlar için önem arz etmektedir. Ancak araçların fiyatlarının birçok faktörden etkilenmesi, satış fiyatının tahmin edilmesini zorlaştırmaktadır. Özellikle araçlara ilişkin hesaplanabilen birçok değişken arasında hangilerinin en iyi tahmin performansını sergileyeceğini belirlemeye yönelik hazır bir yöntem mevcut değildir. Bu çalışmanın amacı karar ağaçları ile ikinci el otomobil satış fiyatını tahmin etmektir. Karar ağaçları için değişken seçimi genetik algoritma ile gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu amaçla Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren e-ticaret sitelerinden birinde yer alan 252645 adet otomobile ait satış ilanı taranmıştır. Her bir otomobile ilişkin 139 adet değişken mevcuttur. Genetik Algoritmalar yardımıyla sırasıyla 5, 10, 15 ve 20 adet değişkenin seçildiği modeller incelenmiştir. %65.67 ye varan oranda doğru tahmin gerçekleştirilebilmiştir. Önerilen yöntemi, ikinci el piyasada işlem yapan taraflar karar destek sistemi olarak kullanabilirler.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Genetik Algoritma, Karar Ağaçları, Tahmin, Veri Madenciliği, İkinci El Otomobil

Suggested citation

Özçalıcı, M. (2017). Karar Ağaçları ve Genetik Algoritmalar ile İkinci El Otomobil Satış Fiyat Tahmini. Alphanumeric Journal, 5(1), 103-114. http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.323836

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2017.05.01.OR.03

alphanumeric journal

Volume 5, Issue 1, 2017

Pages 103-114

Received: Sept. 27, 2016

Accepted: May 8, 2017

Published: June 30, 2017

Full Text [482.3 KB]

2017 Özçalıcı, M.

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence, which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Predicting Second-Hand Car Sales Price Using Decision Trees and Genetic Algorithms

Karar Ağaçları ve Genetik Algoritmalar ile İkinci El Otomobil Satış Fiyat Tahmini

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