alphanumeric journal
The Journal of Operations Research, Statistics, Econometrics and Management Information Systems
The Research Effects of Law Changes at Air Transportation On Air Passanger Carries for Turkey
bib
Abstract
Nowadays, the most cricital element of modern world is to establish connection. The most critical sector of country development and sustaining global economic growth is undouble aviation industry which is applied technological innovations in the fastest way and provides establishing these connections. In this article, firstly the air passangers numbers between1970 to 2013 try to analysis by the diagnostic time series analysis. After that, it has been researched that the law changes are really effect air transport sector. For testing this situation Chow’s Breakpoint test has been chosen. After analysis shown that law changes in 2001 really effect that Turkeys air passengers numbers than its cause to appear a break point in time series.
Keywords: Airline Transport, Box-Jenkins, Chow’s Break Point Test, Time Series Analysis
Jel Classification: C01, C20, C50, C51
Havayolu Taşımacılığı Kanunlarındaki Değişikliğin Türkiye'deki Havayolu Yolcu Taşımacılığı Üzerine Etkilerinin Araştırılması
Öz
Günümüzde modern dünyanın en kritik unsuru bağlantı kurmaktır. Ülkelerin gelişiminde ve küresel ekonomik büyümenin sürdürülmesinde en kritik öneme sahip sektörlerden biride, hiç kuşkusuz bu bağlantının kurulmasını sağlayan ve teknolojik yeniliklerin en hızlı hayata geçirildiği havacılık sektörüdür. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’deki 1970-2013 yılları arası havayolu ile taşınan yolcu sayılarına ait verilerin temel zaman serileri analizleri kullanılarak serinin gösterdiği davranışlar analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Özellikle 2000’li yıllardan sonra devlet teşvikleri ve kanun değişikleri ile hayata geçen uygulamaların sektör üzerinde nasıl bir etkisi olduğunun anlaşılması için yapısal kırılma testi olarak da bilinen Chow’un Yapısal Kırılma (Chow’s Break Point Test) testi uygulanmıştır. Analizler sonucunda özellikle 2001 yılındaki kanun değişikliğinden sonra serinin trendinin arttığı bu durumda seride yapısal bir kırılmaya sebep olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Box Jenkins Metodu, Chow Testi, Havayolu Taşımacılığı, Zaman Serileri Analizi
Suggested citation
(). Havayolu Taşımacılığı Kanunlarındaki Değişikliğin Türkiye'deki Havayolu Yolcu Taşımacılığı Üzerine Etkilerinin Araştırılması. Alphanumeric Journal, 3(1), 89-98. http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/aj.2015.3.1.5000109380
References
- Backxa M., Michael Carneyb, M., Gedajlovicc E., Public, Private And Mixed Ownership And The Performance Of İnternational Airlines, Journal of Air Transport Management Volume 8, Issue 4, July 2002, Pages 213–220
- Bonilla, J.L.M., 2008, Influence Of The State-Owned Airlines On Passenger Satisfaction, Journal of Air Transport Management Volume 14, Issue 3, May 2008, Pages 143–145
- Box, G. E.P., Jenkins, G. N., Reinsel, 1976, Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control, Holden-Day Inc., ISBN:0-8162-1104-3, USA
- Chow, G.C., (1960). Tests Of Equality Between Sets Of Coefficients İn Two Linear Regressions. Econometrica, 28(3), 591-605.
- Dickey, D., Fuller, W., 1979, Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
- Enders, W., 2004, Applied Econometric Times Series, International Edition, Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John, ISBN: 9780471451730, Newyork, USA
- Gerber, P. 2002, Success Factors For The Privatisation of Airports—An Airline Perspective, Journal of Air Transport Management Volume 8, Issue 1, January 2002, Pages 29–36
- Gujarati, D., 2004, Basic Econometrics, 4th Edition, Mc Graw Hill Companies, ISBN: 0072478527, 1221 Avenue of the Americas - 47th floor, New York, NY 10020-1095, USA
- Hooper, P., 2002 Privatization of Airports in Asia, Journal of Air Transport Management Volume 8, Issue 5, September 2002, Pages 289–300
- Lipovich, G. A., 2008, The Privatization Of Argentine Airports, Journal of Air Transport Management, Volume 14, Issue 1, January 2008, Pages 8–15
- Ouma, T.H., Adlerb N., Yua, C., Privatization, Corporatization, Ownership Forms And Their Effects On The Performance Of The World's Major Airports, Journal of Air Transport Management Volume 12, Issue 3, May 2006, Pages 109–121 (Air Transport Research Society Conference, Rio de Janeiro, July 2005)
- Yanga X., Tok S.A., Suc, F., The Privatization And Commercialization Of China's Airports, Journal of Air Transport Management Volume 14, Issue 5, September 2008, Pages 243–251
- Uaştırma Bakanlığı Havacılık Sektörü Raporu, 2013
- Ulaştırma Bakanlığı Havacılık ve Uzay Raporu, 2014
- www.dhmi.gov.tr
- www.worldbank.org
2015.03.01.ECON.01
alphanumeric journal
Pages 89-98
Received: March 30, 2015
Accepted: June 29, 2015
Published: June 30, 2015
2015 Şen, H., Polat, H.
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence, which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
scan QR code to access this article from your mobile device
Contact Us
Faculty of Transportation and Logistics, Istanbul University
Beyazit Campus 34452 Fatih/Istanbul/TURKEY
Bahadır Fatih Yıldırım, Ph.D.
editor@alphanumericjournal.com
+ 90 (212) 440 00 00 - 13219
alphanumeric journal
alphanumeric journal has been publishing as "International Peer-Reviewed Journal" every six months since 2013. alphanumeric serves as a vehicle for researchers and practitioners in the field of quantitative methods, and is enabling a process of sharing in all fields related to the operations research, statistics, econometrics and management informations systems in order to enhance the quality on a globe scale.